The future of the middle class in emerging markets – 2026 update

In October 2024, we published our white paper, The Future of the Middle Class in Emerging Markets, examining whether the long-standing growth story of the emerging market middle class still holds.

Our latest chartbook provides an updated view, with refreshed forecasts through to 2035, highlighting where growth is accelerating, where it is slowing, and what this means for global consumer markets.

What you will learn:

• The middle class population in emerging markets is set to double over the next decade, expanding from 354 million households in 2024 to over 670 million households by 2035.
• China will remain the largest emerging market consumer base during the next 10 years, but its market share will continue to slowly decline as it is outpaced by other markets.
• India’s is the next big growth story, but it is not China 2.0.
• Outside China and India, the fastest-growing markets for middle-class growth are still in Asia, yet Brazil and Mexico will remain the third and fourth largest markets by 2030.
• The middle class in India’s top 10 cities will outperform all Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities in China during the next five years.

Download the chartbook to explore where the next wave of middle-class growth will emerge and what it means for your business.