GCC recovery tracker shows initial rebound has stalled
| The GCC economy faces challenges with a fragile recovery, varying regional performances, and resilient oil revenues amid ongoing disruptions. Discover more. |
The GCC recovery tracker indicates a notable stall in economic rebound, with a forecasted GDP contraction of 5.7% for this year, followed by a gradual recovery to 5.5% growth in 2027. This trend reflects a decline in the diffusion index, which fell by 5.4 points to 51.0 in September, signalling a fragile recovery environment.
Flight disruptions and declining equity prices have contributed to this slowdown, particularly in Saudi Arabia, where ongoing attacks on civilian infrastructure have undermined confidence. Conversely, shipping activities have shown some resilience, with Saudi Arabia restarting exports, although oil production remains at only 77% of pre-conflict levels.
The outlook varies across the region, with Oman performing relatively well due to stable energy production, while Kuwait and Qatar continue to lag behind. Despite a drop in tourist arrivals and uneven fiscal impacts, Saudi Arabia’s oil and gas revenues have exceeded pre-conflict levels, demonstrating some resilience in the face of adversity.
GCC recovery has lost steam
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