Research Briefing
While the automotive tariffs will likely lead to some production being reshored to US plants, they will also raise costs...
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Displaying 1 to 20 of 662 results
Research Briefing
Wealth effects proved to be a quite reliable tailwind to consumer spending this cycle.
Research Briefing
Our bottom-up framework of how imports feed into consumer spending identifies where we expect the largest tariff impacts.
Research Briefing
Our internal recession models support our opinion that a looming downturn is unlikely, despite rising recession risks.
Tariffs are taxes imposed by a government on goods and services imported from other countries. Think of tariff like an...
Research Briefing
Tariff threats and heightened trade policy uncertainty began causing stress in supply chains.
Research Briefing
Cuts to the Federal government workforce, which we estimate to be 200,000 in 2025, will have a modest impact nationally,...
Executive Summary
This quarter’s scenarios quantify key risks to the global economy. These relate primarily to trade protectionism and other geopolitical tensions,...
Research Briefing
We've lowered our GDP growth forecast for the US, Canada and Mexico, reflecting our assumption of more aggressive US tariff...
Research Briefing
Tariffs typically result in a one-off rise in the level of prices.
Research Briefing
Trade tensions between the EU and the US are escalating. Aggressive protectionist policies have been a key instrument for Trump...
Research Briefing
A North American trade war unfolded in dramatic fashion this week.
Research Briefing
As consumer sentiment deteriorated, concerns about the outlook for consumer spending increased. While there's a statistically significant relationship between sentiment...
Research Briefing
On March 4, President Trump placed 25% blanket tariffs on Canada and Mexico, except Canadian energy products that would be...
Research Briefing
We will revise the forecast for federal employment significantly lower this year, and in subsequent years, because of the announced...
Research Briefing
First-quarter GDP is tracking weakly at 1% annualized, but we think a lot of the swings in the data are...
Research Briefing
For many households, tax refunds represent the biggest cash-flow event of the year. It's early, but we think this will...
Research Briefing
We see little evidence that inflation will take a significant turn for the worse, which suggests that the risks of...
Research Briefing
The impact of AI is highly visible in some segments of the economy but barely seen in others, leaving the...
Research Briefing
The United States has introduced an additional 10% levy on Chinese imports as part of the opening round of the...
