Research Briefing
Higher unemployment among recent US graduates is driven by structural shifts in tech hiring and AI displacement. Labor force participation...
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Research Briefing
House Republicans have narrowly passed a reconciliation bill aligned with President Trump's economic goals, including short-term tax cuts and cost...
From executive orders to federal lawsuits against state-level climate policies, the Trump administration has acted with urgency to reverse the...
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region concluded an eventful week as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE hosted President Trump...
Research Briefing
GDP growth likely to be revised up but will remain weaker than assumed prior to Liberation Day.
Research Briefing
The latest US-China tariff deal suggests less of a drag on the economy through the rest of this year.
Research Briefing
We will not change our US forecasts based on the latest US-UK deal and what it signals for future agreements.
Research Briefing
We recently created a heatmap of daily and weekly data to gauge how the US economy is fairing in real...
Research Briefing
President Trump's recent tariff announcements, and the global response, have meant a fast-changing policy landscape with significant effects on our...
Research Briefing
The increase in tariffs announced so far will add more than 10ppts to the cost of business equipment in the...
Research Briefing
The sectors most exposed to mass deportations are construction, agriculture, parts of manufacturing and several service sectors.
Research Briefing
The imposition of larger-than-expected tariffs on US imports will lead us to cut our UK growth forecast. Our new baseline...
Research Briefing
The Trump administration's imposition of a blanket 20% tariff on EU imports, in addition to the wide-ranging tariff increases imposed...
Research Briefing
The imposition of larger-than-expected tariffs on US imports will lead us to cut our UK growth forecast.
Research Briefing
Research Briefing US Rolls Up Welcome Mat for International Travel Trump tariffs set to raise effective rate above 1930s levels.
Research Briefing
US President Trump ordered a 25% tariff on autos and auto parts, starting on April 3.
Research Briefing
President Trump ordered a 25% tariff on autos and auto parts, starting on April 3.
Trump has moved swiftly to advance a trade agenda that goes beyond what was promised in the campaign. This will...
Research Briefing
Our bottom-up framework of how imports feed into consumer spending identifies where we expect the largest tariff impacts.
Research Briefing
Our internal recession models support our opinion that a looming downturn is unlikely, despite rising recession risks.
