Research Briefing
Our Global Economic Model simulations suggest that a permanent 40ppt tariff hike on US imports from Brazil would have limited...
Trade
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Oxford Economics, a global leader in economic forecasting and data analytics, has announced the launch of its TradePrism platform on...
Research Briefing
The significant escalation in US tariffs since early April is set to generate a shallow recession in global industry, though...
Research Briefing
We appear to be witnessing the beginning of a new global economic and market paradigm. We expect five key trends...
Research Briefing
Electronics, electricals, motor vehicles, pharmaceuticals and machinery are most exposed globally to US-imposed tariffs.
Research Briefing
Most commodity price forecasts are cut due to tariffs except for gold and battery metals, which show resilience amid global...
Research Briefing
There are no absolute winners in a trade war, but some will fare relatively better than others.
Research Briefing
We expect GDP growth in both the US and world economy to slow sharply due to the tariff hikes, but...
The implementation of the US “Liberation Day” tariff hikes will have a significant impact on individual sectors and firms, even...
Research Briefing
US President Donald Trump announced a range of tariffs on most trading partners on self-proclaimed 'liberation day'.
On 2 April 2025, the US Administration announced a set of tariff increases, bringing the US back to levels of...
Research Briefing
In two or three years' time, US imports could fall by around 15% due to discounted reciprocal tariff hikes.
Trump has moved swiftly to advance a trade agenda that goes beyond what was promised in the campaign. This will...
Research Briefing
If there’s one thing more damaging than tariffs themselves, it’s the sharp rise in trade policy uncertainty.
Research Briefing
Tariff threats and heightened trade policy uncertainty began causing stress in supply chains.
Research Briefing
Despite weaker-than-expected gains in headline consumer and producer prices in February, the source data that feed into the PCE deflator...
Research Briefing
Cuts to the Federal government workforce, which we estimate to be 200,000 in 2025, will have a modest impact nationally,...
Research Briefing
We've lowered our GDP growth forecast for the US, Canada and Mexico, reflecting our assumption of more aggressive US tariff...
Research Briefing
A North American trade war unfolded in dramatic fashion this week.
Research Briefing
On March 4, President Trump placed 25% blanket tariffs on Canada and Mexico, except Canadian energy products that would be...
