Research Briefing
We think the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) will be contained and is not a sign of systemic risks...
Recession Risk
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Research Briefing
We've created a real-time indicator – the US Business Cycle Indicator (BCI) – to assess the health of economic activity....
Research Briefing
While nearly every metro in Canada will experience at least a minor recession between Q4 2022 and Q3 2023, on...
Research Briefing
Canada has likely just entered a moderate recession that will last for much of 2023.
Research Briefing
Financial conditions in Canada have tightened significantly this year and we estimate this will shave 0.7ppts off GDP growth by...
Research Briefing
Tightening US financial conditions over the past year will likely trim 0.2ppts from Q4 2022 GDP growth.
Research Briefing
In a tough global environment, we are below consensus on advanced economy growth and anticipate most will fall into recession...
Research Briefing
There is no perfect measure of nominal wages – each has its own blemishes. So, we've created a wage tracker...
Research Briefing
Swings in oil prices pack less of an economic punch than in the past but sudden increases can still be...
Consulting Report
Labour markets across a range of advanced economies are cooling rapidly, according to a unique dataset developed by Oxford Economics...
Research Briefing
The decline in house prices triggers falls in residential investment. Consumer spending also weakens as credit conditions tighten and worsening...
Research Briefing
Our baseline forecast is now for world trade in goods to decline by 0.2% in 2023, a considerable downgrade from...
Research Briefing
We expect real estate values to correct sharply in 2023, but pressure should gradually alleviate as policy rates peak.
Research Briefing
The energy crisis will shape the macroeconomic outlook again in 2023, keeping the eurozone economy in recession at the start...
Research Briefing
We anticipate most advanced economies will fall into recession in 2023 and global growth will be weaker than the consensus...
Research Briefing
Many cities in the world's advanced economies will enter recession in 2023, with soaring inflation and tightening monetary and fiscal...
Research Briefing
Better fundamentals and fewer operational setbacks should lower gross gas use by the EU's power sector by 200TWh (5% of...
Research Briefing
The Hungarian economy is being hit by a perfect storm of shocks, particularly surging inflation and a weakening currency. Our...
Research Briefing
Timely October trade data from North Asia are flashing warning signs that Asia's export downturn is gathering momentum. We think...
Research Briefing
Despite an upside growth surprise for Q3, we still expect the eurozone to fall into a widespread recession. Not all...
