Research Briefing
Our sentiment data-based nowcast, developed with Penta, suggests UK employment growth has continued to slow in recent months.
Monetary policy
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Research Briefing
The Bank of Japan kept its policy rate at 0.5% at Thursday's meeting. Considering the significant downgrading of growth and...
Research Briefing
We've cut our GDP growth forecasts for Japan by 0.2ppts to 0.8% in 2025 and by 0.4ppts to 0.2% in...
Research Briefing
The 'Liberation Day' tariffs, together with separately announced higher tariffs on auto imports to the US, will lead us to...
Research Briefing
A series of problems have undermined confidence in the accuracy of official economic statistics for the UK. When using Office...
Research Briefing
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept its policy rate at 0.50% at Wednesday's meeting, as expected. Despite a marginally higher...
Research Briefing
We have revised our CPI forecast upwards for this year and next, due to more persistent supply side-driven food inflation,...
Rising wage costs have been increasingly squeezing the already low profitability of small firms in Japan, thereby raising concerns about...
Research Briefing
A number of recession warnings were flashing yellow and red last year, but the economy didn't falter and entered the...
Research Briefing
The Bank of Japan raised the policy rate by 0.25ppts to 0.5% at Friday's meeting, as we expected. We maintain...
Research Briefing
The Bank of Japan kept its policy rate at 0.25% at Thursday's meeting, as we expected. We believe that the...
Research Briefing
We now believe that the Bank of Japan will wait until January to hike the policy rate. We previously assumed...
Research Briefing
We think Australia's growth prospects are set to improve in 2025. Lower inflation will be supportive of the growth outlook,...
Research Briefing
Oxford Economics' new proprietary business cycle indicator shows that real US construction spending is firmly in a decelerating growth phase.
Research Briefing
The Bank of Japan's decision to maintain the policy rate at 0.25% today surprised no-one. Although the quarterly outlook report...
Research Briefing
Following Wednesday's UK Budget, gilt yields have risen sharply as financial markets appear concerned over the scale of the extra...
Research Briefing
The ruling Liberal Democratic party and its partner Komeito lost their majority in Japan's lower house elections on Sunday, which...
Research Briefing
We expect growth across the Nordic economies to pick up in the near term, with quarterly growth in Sweden and...
Research Briefing
Hopes of a consumer spending recovery becoming the driving engine of eurozone growth in 2024 have not materialised. Private consumption...
Research Briefing
Our sentiment data, developed with Penta, suggests that labour market conditions have loosened and pay growth has slowed abruptly through...
