The latest data releases for overseas travel movements and visa grants, along with the thrust of recent policy announcements, lean increasingly towards a near-term overshoot in net overseas migration (NOM) for Australia.
Inward Migration
While most measures suggest a tight UK labour market, the pass-through to wage growth has been weak. We expect labour demand to soften in 2023, which should loosen conditions in the jobs market and encourage the MPC to take a less hawkish approach than markets anticipate.
