Research Briefing | Dec 7, 2022

Net overseas migration for Australia primed for near-term overshoot

The latest data releases for overseas travel movements and visa grants, along with the thrust of recent policy announcements, lean increasingly towards a near-term overshoot in net overseas migration (NOM) for Australia. It is projected that NOM will increase to 290,000 people in FY2023, with both permanent and temporary migration geared to support this robust upswing.

What you will learn:

  • With the border now open, an increased share of permanent applicants will be sourced from offshore, adding directly to NOM. A higher permanent intake in also in play. As a concluding announcement to the Jobs and Skills Summit, the permanent visa cap was lifted from 160,000 to 195,000 for FY2023, with the prospect of a sustained higher cap left open for FY2024 and beyond.
  • Leads for temporary migration, including student and worker visa grants are very strong. Total approvals for offshore applicants across both streams reached 103,638 in Q3, 44% above the same quarter in 2019. In addition to this surge, a considerable overhang persists of approved applicants during 2020 and 2021 that will continue flowing into Australia over 2023.
  • Further out, it is forecast that NOM will taper back to 250,000 per annum by mid-decade. This forecast profile is stronger than that published in September, adding 45,000 people to the cumulative outlook for NOM.
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