Net overseas migration for Australia primed for near-term overshoot
The latest data releases for overseas travel movements and visa grants, along with the thrust of recent policy announcements, lean increasingly towards a near-term overshoot in net overseas migration (NOM) for Australia. It is projected that NOM will increase to 290,000 people in FY2023, with both permanent and temporary migration geared to support this robust upswing.
What you will learn:
- With the border now open, an increased share of permanent applicants will be sourced from offshore, adding directly to NOM. A higher permanent intake in also in play. As a concluding announcement to the Jobs and Skills Summit, the permanent visa cap was lifted from 160,000 to 195,000 for FY2023, with the prospect of a sustained higher cap left open for FY2024 and beyond.
- Leads for temporary migration, including student and worker visa grants are very strong. Total approvals for offshore applicants across both streams reached 103,638 in Q3, 44% above the same quarter in 2019. In addition to this surge, a considerable overhang persists of approved applicants during 2020 and 2021 that will continue flowing into Australia over 2023.
- Further out, it is forecast that NOM will taper back to 250,000 per annum by mid-decade. This forecast profile is stronger than that published in September, adding 45,000 people to the cumulative outlook for NOM.
Australia Macro Service
In-depth insights and analysis of key domestic and global trends, enabling clients to make better strategic decisions, manage risks and take advantage of newly-developing opportunities in a fast-changing economic environment.Find Out More
Australia’s cooling property market no immediate threat to new housing
Residential real estate markets globally performed strongly over 2020 and 2021 and Australia was no exception. Low borrowing costs, grant incentives, pandemic driven housing preference shifts, elevated savings and amassed household wealth underpinned the strong property price growth recorded over the last two yearsFind Out More