Research Briefing
News-based measures show a sharp rise in uncertainty in early 2026, driven by geopolitics and tariffs. But survey evidence and...
Global Recession
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Research Briefing
While recent economic developments support the notion that economies aren't heading into a major economic downturn, a global recession remains...
Research Briefing
Our indicators suggest global economic sentiment is improving despite the impact of higher interest rates, geopolitical uncertainty, and the squeeze...
Research Briefing
Though our baseline forecast this year is a shallow global recession in the first half of the year the uncertainty...
Research Briefing
Canada has likely just entered a moderate recession that will last for much of 2023.
Research Briefing
Tightening US financial conditions over the past year will likely trim 0.2ppts from Q4 2022 GDP growth.
Research Briefing
In a tough global environment, we are below consensus on advanced economy growth and anticipate most will fall into recession...
Research Briefing
There is no perfect measure of nominal wages – each has its own blemishes. So, we've created a wage tracker...
Research Briefing
Swings in oil prices pack less of an economic punch than in the past but sudden increases can still be...
Research Briefing
Surging inflation has dampened the outlook for consumer spending, which will contribute to a global recession over the coming months.
Research Briefing
The outlook for Latin America changed dramatically after Russia's invasion of Ukraine last February.
Research Briefing
The global cycle is now rolling over and even if the recession is likely to be mild, the subsequent recovery...
Research Briefing
Our baseline forecast is now for world trade in goods to decline by 0.2% in 2023, a considerable downgrade from...
Research Briefing
We expect real estate values to correct sharply in 2023, but pressure should gradually alleviate as policy rates peak.
Research Briefing
The energy crisis will shape the macroeconomic outlook again in 2023, keeping the eurozone economy in recession at the start...
Research Briefing
We anticipate most advanced economies will fall into recession in 2023 and global growth will be weaker than the consensus...
Research Briefing
Many cities in the world's advanced economies will enter recession in 2023, with soaring inflation and tightening monetary and fiscal...
Research Briefing
While our outlook for emerging markets (EMs) is more upbeat than for advanced economies (AEs), we have cut our 2023...
Research Briefing
The Hungarian economy is being hit by a perfect storm of shocks, particularly surging inflation and a weakening currency. Our...
Research Briefing
Timely October trade data from North Asia are flashing warning signs that Asia's export downturn is gathering momentum. We think...
