Last week, oil prices moderated by around 15%, as the ceasefire between Iran and Israel helped to reduce risk premiums.
Global expertise
Saudi Arabia’s Q1 GDP was revised upward to 3.4% year-on-year, driven by a robust 4.9% expansion in the non-oil sector.
OPEC+ is considering another 411,000 b/d output hike for July, with a decision expected on May 31. If confirmed, this would mark the third consecutive increase, reaffirming the shift from price defence to market share expansion.
OPEC+ announced a higher-than-expected oil production hike for June, adding 411,000 b/d to the market. This marks a pivot from price defence to a period of higher output.
S&P has affirmed Turkey’s BB- credit rating with a stable outlook, cautioning that recent political events could have lasting economic repercussions.
Kuwait’s inflation rate eased to 2.4% in March, while Oman’s inflation dropped to 0.5% from 1%, driven by weaker food and non-alcoholic beverage prices.
Saudi Arabia’s inflation rose to 2.3% in March, its highest level since July 2023, driven mainly by a faster rise in food and beverage prices.
The US’s new 10% import tariff is unlikely to cause major disruption for GCC countries. The region sends just 3% of exports to the US, and energy shipments are exempt.
In response to the lira sell-off last week, initial estimates suggest that the central bank of Turkey spent $12bn to defend the currency, after slipping almost 4% following the arrest of Istanbul’s mayor
Turkish annual inflation continued its downtrend in February, easing to 39.1%, the lowest since mid-2023. The monthly increase in prices of 2.3% was driven by higher costs across services, especially rents and transport, as well as processed food.
Turkish annual inflation continued its downtrend in February, easing to 39.1%, the lowest since mid-2023. The monthly increase in prices of 2.3% was driven by higher costs across services, especially rents and transport, as well as processed food.
Turkish annual inflation continued its downtrend in February, easing to 39.1%, the lowest since mid-2023. The monthly increase in prices of 2.3% was driven by higher costs across services, especially rents and transport, as well as processed food.
In December 2024, Saudi Arabia’s trade surplus narrowed to SAR 15.3 billion from SAR 34.8 billion due to higher imports and lower oil exports from ongoing OPEC+ cuts.
Saudi Arabia’s fiscal deficit widened to 2.8% of GDP in 2024, broadly in line with our expectations. With both non-oil sectors’ momentum holding and oil revenues expected to gradually rise this year, our forecast of a narrowing deficit to 1.6% of GDP in 2025 remains intact.
Dubai’s GDP grew by 3.1% in the first nine months of 2024, driven by critical sectors such as transport, information & communication, and financial activities. This reflects the emirate’s commitment to key development areas outlined in its D33 agenda, including technology adoption and transport expansion. The agenda aligns with the national strategy to strengthen the non-oil sector, particularly in real estate and finance. UAE non-oil growth is expected to remain strong in 2025 at 4.8%.
Saudi Arabia’s latest PMI signals the strongest non-oil economic growth since 2014, driven by robust domestic demand.
Saudi Arabia plans to invest $600bn in the US over four years, amid 7% trade growth and rising imports. Yet, oil exports fell 12% YoY in November. Meanwhile, Bahrain’s inflation hit a 4-month high at 0.5%, with prices set to rise into 2025.
Israel and Hamas reached a multi-stage ceasefire agreement with the first stage becoming effective on 19th January and establishing a 6-week ceasefire and mandating the release of hostages and prisoners.
We have recently published our outlook for the GCC in 2025.
The report highlights that we expect regional GDP growth to nearly double to 3.6% in 2025, above our global forecast of 2.8%.
GCC economies ended 2024 on a firm note according to December PMI surveys, with business activity rising especially strongly in the UAE.
