The major policy proposals planned for the second Trump administration will have mixed implications for the US economy in 2025...
Fiscal stimulus
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Research Briefing
Canada has likely just entered a moderate recession that will last for much of 2023.
Research Briefing
According to the proposal of the German government's expert commission around half of the recently agreed €200bn fiscal package or...
Research Briefing
The National Bank of Poland (NBP) kept its policy rate unchanged at 6.75% yesterday, undershooting consensus and our expectation of...
Research Briefing
Ecuador is no longer on track towards meeting the criteria imposed on it by the IMF to keep its US$6.4bn...
Research Briefing
The energy crisis took a dramatic turn this week after reports of several leaks in the gas pipelines Nordstream 1...
Research Briefing
We do not expect a long-lasting rebound in sterling (or gilts) anytime soon, given the lack of a credible fiscal...
Research Briefing
We have cut our China growth forecast to 3.2% in 2022, from 4% previously, reflecting dismal Q2 growth and the...
Research Briefing
The recent escalation of the conflict between Poland and the European Union has significantly increased the odds of a decisive...
Research Briefing
Our new monthly Asia Pacific Recovery Tracker shows overall momentum stalling in recent months amid the Delta-driven surge in Covid...
Research Briefing
Inflation has been elevated in many Asian economies for several months now. Indeed, the Bank of Korea and the Monetary...
Research Briefing
In a surprise move, the Monetary Authority of Singapore today tightened monetary policy by slightly raising the slope of the...
Research Briefing
Private bank credit contracted 2.7% in 2020 in Indonesia and continued to decline on a year-on-year basis through most of...
Research Briefing
Recent political shifts have increased the odds of Germany loosening its tight national fiscal rules after the September elections, which...
Research Briefing
We remain bullish on the outlook for the Canadian economy over the next two years despite a surprising contraction in...
Research Briefing
Profitability has staged an impressive recovery, but the rise in Q1 operating margins to a 12-year high materially overstates corporate...
Research Briefing
The race to succeed long-term Chancellor Merkel and lead Europe’s largest economy is wide open. But we think Germany will...
The construction sector did not escape the coronavirus-induced economic downdraft unscathed. Activity at the global scale fell 1.4% in 2020,...
Research Briefing
Due to ongoing pandemic-related spending needs, we now expect Indonesia’s fiscal deficit will narrow to 3% of GDP only by...
Research Briefing
The public sector wage bill is one of South Africa’s largest line items on the expenditure side, accounting for roughly...
