Research Briefing
The sharp fall in our US business cycle indicator in February signalled the economy lost momentum midway through Q1.
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Research Briefing
Supply chain stress continued to ease in February despite stronger-than-expected economic growth. Supply chains could return to pre-pandemic conditions by...
Research Briefing
The failure of two US banks caught financial markets by surprise but we believe the macroeconomic implications are minor and...
Research Briefing
We've created a real-time indicator – the US Business Cycle Indicator (BCI) – to assess the health of economic activity....
Research Briefing
The incoming data likely warrant some adjustments to the baseline forecast, particularly for the path of the target range for...
Research Briefing
Supply chain stress fell at the beginning of the year and further easing is likely due to weaker domestic and...
Our baseline economic outlook now assumes a mild US recession beginning in the second quarter of 2023. Despite recent moderation,...
Research Briefing
The US economy will need a lot of luck to avoid a recession next year because the headwinds are about to intensify. We...
Research Briefing
The Federal Reserve knows that their mission to tame inflation isn’t complete, and odds are rising that the central bank...
Research Briefing
The 2023 outlook for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region will not compare to this year's spectacular expansion. That said,...
Research Briefing
Tightening US financial conditions over the past year will likely trim 0.2ppts from Q4 2022 GDP growth.
Research Briefing
We have cut our US industrial outlook to reflect rising interest rates and economic uncertainty.
Research Briefing
While few observers expect to see any growth surprise in Japan, some have started to wonder whether global inflation may...
Research Briefing
There is no perfect measure of nominal wages – each has its own blemishes. So, we've created a wage tracker...
Research Briefing
The outlook for Latin America changed dramatically after Russia's invasion of Ukraine last February.
Research Briefing
We expect Asian currencies to stabilise, if not strengthen, versus the US dollar in 2023, as the Fed pauses hiking...
Research Briefing
The global cycle is now rolling over and even if the recession is likely to be mild, the subsequent recovery...
Research Briefing
Bank Indonesia raised its policy rate by 50 bps at its last meeting on November 17, making for a total...
Research Briefing
Policy divergence will continue to be a key theme in global FI markets in 2023. Whereas we pencil in a...
Research Briefing
The strength of the US labor market, as demonstrated by the increase in job openings in September, will frustrate the...
