Research Briefing
The data released over the past week don't warrant changes to our latest baseline forecast for growth to improve this...
Fed Monetary Policy
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Research Briefing
This year is set to be a turning point for commercial property markets in the US. A gradual easing of...
Research Briefing
We expect downward pressure from multiple factors to push inflation lower by the end of 2023. Weaker demand and reduced...
Research Briefing
Supply chain stress eased in April, which will put downward pressure on goods prices and allow the Fed to pause...
Research Briefing
Last week's liquidation of Silvergate Capital and the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) have raised questions about the risks...
Research Briefing
The US economy will need a lot of luck to avoid a recession next year because the headwinds are about to intensify. We...
Research Briefing
The Federal Reserve knows that their mission to tame inflation isn’t complete, and odds are rising that the central bank...
Research Briefing
Tightening US financial conditions over the past year will likely trim 0.2ppts from Q4 2022 GDP growth.
Research Briefing
There is no perfect measure of nominal wages – each has its own blemishes. So, we've created a wage tracker...
Research Briefing
We expect Asian currencies to stabilise, if not strengthen, versus the US dollar in 2023, as the Fed pauses hiking...
Research Briefing
Policy divergence will continue to be a key theme in global FI markets in 2023. Whereas we pencil in a...
Research Briefing
The strength of the US labor market, as demonstrated by the increase in job openings in September, will frustrate the...
Research Briefing
Supply chain developments were mixed in October, but the implications for the outlook, particularly for inflation, are modest. The easing...
