Research Briefing
A cold winter in Europe would require drastic cuts in gas consumption – consistent with hard rationing – in Germany...
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Research Briefing
Although the risk of hard energy rationing has diminished, demand destruction triggered by the surge in energy prices has led...
Research Briefing
We will increase gas prices and inflation and cut GDP growth in the September forecast round, with the eurozone economy...
Research Briefing
We have long been expecting a dovish pivot from the ECB at the turn of the year as supply-driven core...
Research Briefing
The minutes from the July ECB meeting, when the bank ended the period of the negative interest rates in the...
Our modelling suggests incorporating owner-occupied housing costs would lower eurozone headline inflation from Q3 2022 by 0.3ppts, with negative contributions...
Research Briefing
We estimate consumer spending in the eurozone increased by 0.8% q/q in Q2, despite persistent elevated inflation denting real incomes...
Research Briefing
As European inflation reaches record levels, the impact varies across cities and regions. We estimate that most large European cities...
Research Briefing
A switch to electric vehicles (EVs) is vital if cities are to achieve net zero carbon emissions. In Europe the...
Research Briefing
The resignation of Prime Minister Mario Draghi is going to leave a policy vacuum in Italy. Snap elections are now...
Research Briefing
The ECB's decision to hike rates, abandon forward guidance and introduce an anti-fragmentation tool appear to reflect a balancing act...
Research Briefing
We expect eurozone services prices to continue to rise sharply over the summer as the sector's recovery progresses. The ECB...
Research Briefing
Recession risks are mounting globally, including in the eurozone. Growing recession fears have resulted in large drops in oil prices...
Research Briefing
We now see gas rationing this winter in European economies most reliant on Russia as very likely. Our modelling finds...
Research Briefing
The eurozone's labour market has outperformed expectations since the start of the pandemic, but current headwinds to economic growth are...
Research Briefing
Central banks have changed the way they react to economic conditions, largely focussing on current inflation and its impact on...
Research Briefing
The expectation of a strong recovery in the tourism sector, coupled with the divergence between resilient services activity and a...
Research Briefing
As expected, the ECB council agreed to end the era of nonstandard monetary policy measures by September as it gears...
Research Briefing
The National Bank of Poland (NBP) hiked the policy rate by 75bps at yesterday's meeting, in line with both our...
Research Briefing
The approaching French legislative elections are defined by serious political risks. Our baseline sees Macron's presidential coalition winning the majority...
