Research Briefing | Jul 6, 2022

Gas rationing to have severe impact on EU economies

We now see gas rationing this winter in European economies most reliant on Russia as very likely. Our modelling finds that cutting final gas demand in Q4 by 10% via rationing with governments shielding households would mean severe contractions in industry and a direct loss of annual gross value-added from 1.5% to 4%. GVA losses would roughly double if gas rationing extends to Q1 2023.

What you will learn:

  • Together with a substantial increase to the gas price forecast, we expect inflation in the eurozone to peak higher and will significantly cut our growth forecast in the next revision.
  • EU gas storage levels were at roughly 60% of capacity in early July.
  • While storage capacity varies widely across Europe, without Russian supplies several member states will struggle to reach 80% storage levels by November, as mandated by the EU.

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