Research Briefing
We still expect the Bank of England to cut Bank Rate by 25bps again in November, despite August's unexpectedly tight...
Bank of England
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The Bank of England’s new BCST stress test introduces a recalibrated approach to measuring financial resilience in reflecting IFRS 9...
At Oxford Economics we firmly agree with Bernanke’s forecast process recommendations to the BoE. The review also sparked us to...
Research Briefing
We firmly agree with all of Bernake review’s forecasting process recommendations, though it appears from the BoE's initial response that...
Research Briefing
The UK inflation outlook has been transformed by steep falls in oil and gas prices and the recent softening in...
Research Briefing
Our measure of financial conditions has become less restrictive in the US and started to loosen in the eurozone and...
Research Briefing
The Monetary Policy Committee voted to keep Bank Rate at 5.25% at November's meeting. The lack of significant news on...
Research Briefing
Reforms to the UK's fiscal framework would help put the public finances on a more sustainable path and provide a...
Research Briefing
We expect the MPC to raise Bank Rate at December's meeting. But recent UK developments, including calmer financial markets, a...
Research Briefing
We expect the UK economy to be in recession for most of 2023, with activity dragged down by falling real...
Research Briefing
Policy divergence will continue to be a key theme in global FI markets in 2023. Whereas we pencil in a...
Research Briefing
Despite the recent deterioration in the UK housing market, we think the doomsday scenario set out in the Bank of...
Research Briefing
The BoE raised Bank Rate by 75bps to 3% at its November meeting, in line with our expectations and market...
Research Briefing
UK government's U-turns on tax cuts, the prospect of further fiscal policy tightening, and calmer financial markets mean the Monetary...
Research Briefing
Central banks around the world are raising interest rates and shrinking balance sheets, but financial conditions are not under enough...
Research Briefing
The new UK Chancellor's decision to reverse almost all September's mini-Budget tax cuts plus action to limit the cost of...
BoE governor Andrew Bailey's insistence that emergency support will end on Friday is an unsustainable position that we expect to...
Research Briefing
After several days of huge UK financial market volatility, the BoE intervened at the long end of the gilt market...
Research Briefing
We do not expect a long-lasting rebound in sterling (or gilts) anytime soon, given the lack of a credible fiscal...
Research Briefing
The BoE today announced a 50bp rise in Bank Rate to 1.75%, despite publishing a forecast that suggests the UK...
