Shocks to Los Angeles film and entertainment sectors to hit growth
Los Angeles benefited from a strong recovery in film sector and tourism-related jobs in 2022, finally yielding a recovery of lost pandemic jobs in Q1. Los Angeles’s net job change from Q1 2020 to Q1 2023 was 0.4%, still below the US net growth of 2.3%. Its 2022 job growth rate of 5.5% exceeded the US growth of 4.3% last year. In addition to the restaurants, job growth was led by arts and recreation and film and sound recording. But the film sector faces considerable volatility as does its large tech sector which should shed jobs in 2023. We forecast a 2023 annual job growth rate of 1.3%, but LA is forecast to see jobs decline 1.3% in the second half of 2023 then grow 0.5% in 2024 through 2027, above the US rate of 0.4% for the four-year period.
What you will learn:
- Los Angeles’s 2022 GDP growth rate of 1% ranks in the bottom 10 of the 50 largest metros. GDP growth was led by real estate and arts and recreation. We forecast annual GDP growth of 1.3% in 2023, which includes a GDP decline of 1.3% in the second half of the year. We forecast 2024-2027 annual GDP growth of 1.6%, below the 50-city forecasted average rate of 1.7%.
- Los Angeles’s large film sector has reaped significant growth from the expansion of streaming that gained popularity during the pandemic. Film jobs grew 19.3% in 2022 but are forecast to decline 6.2% in 2023 and remain flat from 2024 to 2027. LA’s tourism industry also saw a healthy recovery of 19.5% in 2022 and is forecast to have job growth of 4.8% in 2023 and 1.2%, annually, from 2024 to 2027. Likewise, GDP in this sector grew 9.7% in 2022.
- Los Angeles saw net outmigration of 62,400 in 2022 dragging population down by 0.7% for the year. We forecast net outmigration of 51,100 from 2023 to 2027 yet population growth of 0.2% annually, below the US forecasted rate of 0.5%.
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