Research Briefing | May 11, 2022

Food price inflation could hit Africa the hardest

Higher international food prices will have a more aggressive impact on African CPI readings than those in advanced economies. This is due to heavier weightings of foodstuffs in CPI baskets. But the impact will extend far beyond headline CPI prints: calls for subsidies will either be heeded, putting pressure on the fiscus, or disregarded, resulting in social discontent.

What you will learn:

  • South Africa and Nigeria are taking advantage of commodity price tailwinds to plaster over deep underlying economic issues.
  • Food prices have trended higher over the past two years, and the war in Ukraine has exacerbated this trend.
  • While the cost of essentials has increased, many African countries including South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya and Morocco struggle with unemployment rates much higher than pre-pandemic levels.

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