Research Briefing | Jul 6, 2022

European city consumer outlook downgraded amid high inflation

Surging inflation across Europe has led us to lower the outlook for real growth in consumer spending this year, although some cities such as Budapest, Lisbon, and Munich are still likely to see increases above 5%. Certain cities are also being affected by supply chain disruptions. Lisbon, Budapest, and Amsterdam top our forecasts for 2022 GDP growth, while central and eastern European cities lead over the medium term.

What you will learn:

  • Among the sectors most exposed to current macroeconomic challenges are hospitality, arts & recreation, and manufacturing.
  • 2022 GDP growth prospects also depend on a wide range of other factors. We forecast that Lisbon, Budapest, and Amsterdam will see some of the strongest growth in 2022 and expect Barcelona to also exceed the city average, with all four cities helped by returning tourists.
  • In the medium term (2022-26), we continue to expect central and eastern cities such as Warsaw, Budapest, and Prague to lead European growth.

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