Recent Release | 12 Sep 2022

Energy Transitions in Western and Central Africa: A focus on Nigeria, Ghana, Senegal, Equatorial Guinea and Mauritania

Africa Consulting Team

Oxford Economics Africa

The global energy transition involves the sustained displacement of fossil fuels by renewable energy and complementary technologies to reduce carbon intensity. It is, however, imperative to consider such shifts within the distinct developmental contexts of countries to ensure energy transitions are socially inclusive and just.

This latest report by our Africa consulting team examines how energy transitions are likely to unfold in Nigeria, Ghana, Senegal, Equatorial Guinea, and Mauritania. These countries exhibit stark energy poverty and are highly reliant on hydrocarbons to help fuel their economic development.

The study assesses the historic and future development of each country’s primary energy and electricity landscapes under two scenarios. Depending on the country, we find that total domestic primary energy supplies will have to increase by between 1.3% and 5.3% and electricity generation by 4.6% to 7.7% on average per year to 2050 in order to enable industrial development, improve human well-being, and reduce the harmful incineration of traditional biomass.

Energy transitions in these countries are likely to be distinct from those charted for other countries in Africa and elsewhere. A key finding is that natural gas and, to a lesser extent oil, is set to grow in the countries’ primary energy systems, while natural gas will progressively complement rising shares of renewables in electricity production. The proliferation of natural gas is essential to their fiscal, economic, social, industrial, and developmental futures. Even so, renewable energy and complementary technologies will concurrently continue to gain in prominence. The vast energy expansion requirements suggest an accompanying rise in carbon emissions, although the countries’ respective contributions will remain marginal and well below 0.3% of total global energy emissions by 2050.

The report was commissioned by Kosmos Energy, a leading deepwater oil and gas exploration and production company with a long history of working in Africa. Kosmos Energy’s assets include production offshore Ghana, Equatorial Guinea and the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, as well as a word-class natural gas development offshore Mauritania and Senegal.

About the team

Our Africa consulting team include specialists in quantitative economic analysis, working with clients around the globe and across sectors to build models, forecast markets and evaluate interventions using state-of-the art techniques. Lead consultants on this project were:

Deon Fourie

Senior Economist

+27 (0)21 863 6200

Private: Deon Fourie

Senior Economist

South Africa

Deon Fourie is a senior economist at Oxford Economics Africa (OE Africa) where he undertakes specialised consulting projects and is responsible for the economic analysis and forecasting of Lesotho and eSwatini. Deon has 12 years’ professional experience obtained in key public and private sector institutions with special interests in sustainable and inclusive economic development, macroeconomics, energy transitions, systems, markets and industry development, environmental responsibility, socio-economic upliftment, circular economies, infrastructure development, policy development, business management and strategy formulation. Before joining OE Africa in 2021, Deon was a consulting manager and senior economist at Pegasys Strategy and Management Consulting. Prior to this, he was acting head economist at the Independent Power Producers (IPP) Office of South Africa, employed through the Development Bank of Southern Africa (DBSA). Deon has further worked in different economic, advisory and analytical capacities at the National Treasury of South Africa, Econometrix (Pty) Ltd and TradeMark Southern Africa (a regional integration programme funded by the U.K. Department for International Development). Deon has a Master of Commerce (M.Com) degree in Economics with a focus on Renewable Energy and Energy Storage systems from North-West University (NWU), as well as a Bachelor of Commerce (B.Com) Honours degree in Economics with specialisation in International Business and B.Com degree in Economics with specialisation in Financial and Strategic Management from the University of South Africa (UNISA), both obtained with distinction.

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