Early evidence shows scale of economic collapse

Two months after Russia’s invasion, Ukraine is suffering huge humanitarian and economic losses. According to official estimates, Ukraine’s economy contracted by 40%-45% in March relative to pre-war levels and is gradually adjusting to the new ‘war economy’ conditions.

Recognising our projections are subject to huge uncertainties, our baseline forecast is for Ukraine’s GDP to contract by about 35% this year, followed by a relatively shallow recovery in 2023 and 2024. By 2027, we expect Ukraine’s GDP will still be 13.5% below its pre-war levels.

What you will learn:

• Which regions affected by fighting represent 29.5% of Ukraine’s GDP
• Our GDP forecast versus alternatives for 2022
• Post-war GDP recoveries for Ukraine vs Middle eastern wars