Ungated Post | 07 Aug 2020

Chart of the week: Why ending the easing cycle in Brazil now would be a mistake

Innes

Innes McFee

Managing Director of Macro and Investor Services

This week the Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) lowered the Selic rate to 2.00%. Although our baseline scenario is for further rate cuts in the coming months, our Taylor rule suggests that rates should go even lower, between zero and 1%. We continue to believe the BCB will eventually be forced to cut rates again in the coming months and it won’t need to hike by as much as markets currently price in.

Brazil monetary policy (2)

 

You may be interested in

Post

Australia: RBA hike by another 25 bps as the fight against inflation continues

The RBA has raised its cash rate target by a further 25 basis points, taking it to 4.1%. Although inflation has peaked, the RBA board is still clearly uncomfortable with its brisk pace.

Find Out More

Post

BIS Oxford Economics to be rebranded as Oxford Economics Australia

Over the past six years we've maintained the unique modelling and analysis that clients and the media have come to rely on from BIS Shrapnel while incorporating Oxford Economics' rigorous global modelling and analytical framework to complement it," said David Walker, Director, Oxford Economics Australia.

Find Out More
Johannesburg, South Africa

Post

Introducing our renovated African Forecasting Service

From economy to politics, investment to operation, fuel your business growth by leveraging our complete Africa solutions.

Find Out More