We spelt out our view on the future of globalisation this week. We don’t expect globalization to go into reverse, but we do think it will continue to proceed much less briskly than in 1990-2010, implying further downward pressure on growth. This is partly a natural outcome of rapid growth in some EMs, internalization of the environmental impact of transport, a shift of production closer to markets, and labour-saving technological progress. But it also reflects policies that erect barriers to trade and investment, such as tariffs in the US-China trade war..
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