Ungated Post | 19 Oct 2020
Chart of the week: Eurozone: OE real neutral rate estimates
Innes McFee
Managing Director of Macro and Investor Services
According to our new overlapping generations model, the Eurozone is stuck in secular stagnation leaving the ECB unable to hit the 2% inflation target in the foreseeable future. We find that secular demographic forces have been key to driving down real neutral interest rates. Based on our research, they hit -2% in 2018 and without a sharp increase in public debt levels or a major shift in demographics, they are likely to remain negative.
Tags:
You may be interested in
Post
LandAid’s 10K Challenge
Yesterday, members of Oxford Economics joined LandAid’s 10k run in Regents Park London to raise awareness and funds for young people experiencing homelessness.
Find Out More
Post
Anchors away – RBA change course and raise rates
The RBA has opted to raise the cash rate target to 0.35%. For some time, the RBA identified faster wage growth as its trigger for raising rates. Official data sources have provided no new information on this front over the past month. But the board has put their faith in information from the RBA business liaison program that wage growth is picking up.
Find Out More
Post
Introducing our new US Real Estate Economics Service
The new US Real Estate Economics Service helps companies understand the implications of macroeconomic, geopolitical, financial and climate change on private and public real estate performance in the US. The first globally consistent and independent set of real estate forecasts, the service offers regular analysis and commentary from our highly experienced team of real estate economists.
Find Out More