Ungated Post | 19 Oct 2020
Chart of the week: Eurozone: OE real neutral rate estimates
Innes McFee
Managing Director of Macro and Investor Services
According to our new overlapping generations model, the Eurozone is stuck in secular stagnation leaving the ECB unable to hit the 2% inflation target in the foreseeable future. We find that secular demographic forces have been key to driving down real neutral interest rates. Based on our research, they hit -2% in 2018 and without a sharp increase in public debt levels or a major shift in demographics, they are likely to remain negative.
Tags:
You may be interested in
Post
Sneak preview: our new Asia Real Estate Service
The new Asia Real Estate Economics Service helps companies understand the implications of macroeconomic, geopolitical, financial and climate change on private and public real estate performance in Asia. The first globally consistent and independent set of real estate forecasts, the service offers regular analysis and commentary from our highly experienced team of real estate economists.
Find Out More
Post
Oxford Economics Launches Global Risk Service
Oxford Economics launches our Global Risk Service, a suite of data-driven and forward-looking tools that measure macro-economic and financial crises risks in 166 countries.
Find Out More
Post
Australia’s CAPEX falters in Q1, with cost inflation to test activity
Private new capital expenditure fell 0.3% q/q in Q1 2022, led lower by a fall in buildings and structures investment. The weak result is in part due to the impact of Omicron on labour availability, and the postponement of construction activity in flood affected areas. Machinery & equipment volumes rose in the quarter.
Find Out More