Research Briefing

Canada job growth to return to more normal rates across metros

With Covid-19 restrictions lifting, and relatively little direct exposure to the Russia-Ukraine situation except through commodity prices and supply disruptions, the focus for Canadian metros switches to the post-recovery outlook for the next five years. We forecast a return to a more usual pattern of growth, with job gains in metros mostly outstripping those in non-metro areas by some distance.

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  • We expect the medium-term performance of metros to be largely dictated by their industrial structures, and therefore their potential to attract skilled and highly productive workers.
  • We forecast the strongest medium term job growth to occur in Calgary and Edmonton where the oil sector will see robust growth and its high wages will attract workers, thus having positive multiplier effects on the rest of their economy.
  • Vancouver and Toronto will see continued growth in their office and tech sectors while at the other end of the scale, Montreal’s job gains will be much more modest as it struggles to transition away from manufacturing industries. Ottawa-Gatineau is very reliant on the public sector which we forecast will grow only slowly.

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