Businesses see tighter policy as the greatest economic risk
Risks to the global economy remain skewed to the downside, based on our latest survey of risk perceptions. But businesses no longer see war as the key threat to the economic outlook.
Businesses’ key concern is now an advanced economy recession in which higher inflation and rapid central bank tightening squeeze real incomes and weigh heavily on property and financial markets. With central banks changing the way they react to economic conditions, respondents see more than a one in four chance of this scenario materialising.
Moderate expansion is viewed as the most likely outcome in the near term, however. The mean expectation for world GDP growth remains well below our baseline forecast, by around 0.7ppt for 2022. At the same time, businesses perceive a reduced chance of global economic contraction, as well as a fall in the odds of strong growth this year.
Business sentiment appears to vary markedly across sectors and regions. A greater proportion of respondents from financial institutions and the professional and business services sector view risks as heavily skewed to the downside. By contrast, those businesses focused on the Asia Pacific region perceive a relatively high chance of more rapid global economic growth.
The survey was completed by 167 businesses from 13-22 June
What you will learn:
-
Why most businesses report becoming more negative about global growth prospects
-
Why moderate growth is seen as most likely for 2022
- Growth expectations for 2023
Tags:
Related posts

Post
Global Construction Futures
A global forecast for the construction industry to 2037.
Find Out More
Post
Modest growth in 2023 for six Canadian metros despite winter recession
While nearly every metro in Canada will experience at least a minor recession between Q4 2022 and Q3 2023, on an annual basis, six mostly smaller metros will escape a GDP contraction in 2023 as a whole: Lethbridge, St. John's, Saskatoon, Regina, Calgary, and Barrie.
Find Out More
Post
The global economic costs of climate change inaction
Quantifying the economic impact of climate change becomes crucial, particularly in a rapidly warming planet.
Find Out More