Research Briefing | Feb 21, 2022

Australia’s population outlook boosted by quicker border reopening

Australia's population outlook boosted by quicker border reopening Page1Alongside the return of temporary migrants, the Australian border will be open to all traveller categories, most importantly tourists, from 21 February 2022. The accelerated return of temporary migrants has upgraded the outlook for net overseas migration (NOM). We see quarterly NOM returning to the pre-pandemic rate by mid-2022.

What you will learn:

  • In annual terms, a moderate inflow of 70,000 is expected for FY2022, up from 5,000 in our November forecast.
  • With NOM forecast to rise to 250,000 in FY2023, Australia’s population growth rate is projected to hit 1.53%.
  • The return of temporary migrants will help relieve some pinch points in the labour market and support the recovery in service-export based industries such as higher education. The impending return of tourists will boost activity in several other sectors, such as retail and hospitality.

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