Recent Release | 17 Jan 2023

Australian Macroeconomic Energy Transition Scenarios

Economic Consulting Team

Oxford Economics

BIS Oxford Economics provided the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) with long-term macroeconomic and energy price forecasts for a number of scenarios characterised by changing economic and climate change profiles. These forecasts are used to inform a number of AEMO’s public planning documents shaping the future of Australia’s energy market.

In 2022, AEMO engaged BIS Oxford Economics to develop updated long-term economic forecasts for each Australian state and territory as a key input to AEMO’s demand forecasts. Emerging from the pandemic, the economic outlook is more positive. While the economic recovery continues to be affected by COVID-19, the successful roll-out of the vaccine has enabled overseas travel and migration to resume and restrictions on activity generally no longer dominate the social dynamic in Australia.

Compared to other countries, the Australian economy has performed well due to timely monetary and fiscal policy propping up household incomes and supporting domestic consumption. Further to this, strong global commodity prices for key mining inputs contributed to the strength of the Australian economy through the pandemic. More ambitious climate change policy goals for Australia, as well as globally, also lead to greater economic growth outcomes for the central outlook in this update.

Access both the macroeconomic and commodity projection reports that AEMO used in their Draft Assumptions and Scenarios report below:

About the team

Our macro consulting team are world leaders in quantitative economic analysis, working with clients around the globe and across sectors to build models, forecast markets and evaluate interventions using state-of-the art techniques. Lead consultants on this project were:

Kristian Kolding

Head of Consulting

+61 4 1040 9070

Kristian Kolding

Head of Consulting

Sydney

Kristian leads the BIS Oxford Economics’ Consulting team, working with public and private sector leaders to help them prepare for the future by applying relevant economic theory and forecasts to inform effective policy and business strategy development.

Daniel Crook

Economist

+61 2 8458 4228

Daniel Crook

Economist

Sydney, Australia

Daniel is an economist who joined BIS Oxford Economics in 2020 as part of the graduate program. He has been involved in several consulting projects which included economic due diligence projects for assets transaction sales, scenario modelling, developing macroeconomic models and forecasts as well as conducting strategic cost-benefit analysis and economic impact assessments. Daniel also has broad economic industry experience through his time working with BIS Oxford Economics’ subscription services. This included analysing and forecasting the construction and mining sectors, as well as the residential and commercial property sectors. Daniel holds a Bachelor of Business (Economics) and a Bachelor of Economics Honours from Queensland University of Technology.

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