Recent Release | 17 Jan 2023

Australian Macroeconomic Energy Transition Scenarios

Economic Consulting Team

Oxford Economics

BIS Oxford Economics provided the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) with long-term macroeconomic and energy price forecasts for a number of scenarios characterised by changing economic and climate change profiles. These forecasts are used to inform a number of AEMO’s public planning documents shaping the future of Australia’s energy market.

In 2022, AEMO engaged BIS Oxford Economics to develop updated long-term economic forecasts for each Australian state and territory as a key input to AEMO’s demand forecasts. Emerging from the pandemic, the economic outlook is more positive. While the economic recovery continues to be affected by COVID-19, the successful roll-out of the vaccine has enabled overseas travel and migration to resume and restrictions on activity generally no longer dominate the social dynamic in Australia.

Compared to other countries, the Australian economy has performed well due to timely monetary and fiscal policy propping up household incomes and supporting domestic consumption. Further to this, strong global commodity prices for key mining inputs contributed to the strength of the Australian economy through the pandemic. More ambitious climate change policy goals for Australia, as well as globally, also lead to greater economic growth outcomes for the central outlook in this update.

Access both the macroeconomic and commodity projection reports that AEMO used in their Draft Assumptions and Scenarios report below:

About the team

Our Macro Consulting team are world leaders in quantitative economic analysis, working with clients around the globe and across sectors to build models, forecast markets and evaluate interventions using state-of-the art techniques. Lead consultants on this project were:

Kristian Kolding

Head of Consulting, OE Australia

Ruchira Ray

Lead Economist, OE Australia

Daniel Crook

Economist, OE Australia

Gary Wang

Economist, OE Australia

You might be interested in

Smart Energy International: Siemens unveils utilities’ struggle with limited behind-the-meter DER visibility

Utility companies in North America are hurrying to keep up with historic changes taking place in the way electricity is generated, consumed, and monetized. However, most companies lack the ability to measure and manage an energy economy impacted by the rapid adoption of electric vehicles, solar panels, and batteries, known as distributed energy resources, or DERs.

Find Out More
BBC News at One: UK Interest Rates

Andrew Goodwin, Chief UK Economist at Oxford Economics, discusses UK interest rates, inflation, and energy costs with the BBC News at One.

Find Out More
south african city
Business Day TV: Kenya’s price pressures

Kenya has been battling elevated prices despite inflation easing from 7.3% to 6.7% in August. Over the last 12 months, petrol prices jumped by 22% while electricity prices grew by 50%. Business Day TV reflected on Kenya's price pressures in greater detail with Shani Smit-Lengton, Economist at Oxford Economics Africa.

Find Out More
Energy Digital: Natural gas: A post-war outlook

Toby Whittington, Lead Economist at Oxford Economics, shares an op-ed to delves into the impact of losing Russian gas and how we must look towards the prospect of securing new supplies.

Find Out More