Recent Release | 17 Jan 2023
Australian Macroeconomic Energy Transition Scenarios
Economic Consulting Team
Oxford Economics
BIS Oxford Economics provided the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) with long-term macroeconomic and energy price forecasts for a number of scenarios characterised by changing economic and climate change profiles. These forecasts are used to inform a number of AEMO’s public planning documents shaping the future of Australia’s energy market.
In 2022, AEMO engaged BIS Oxford Economics to develop updated long-term economic forecasts for each Australian state and territory as a key input to AEMO’s demand forecasts. Emerging from the pandemic, the economic outlook is more positive. While the economic recovery continues to be affected by COVID-19, the successful roll-out of the vaccine has enabled overseas travel and migration to resume and restrictions on activity generally no longer dominate the social dynamic in Australia.
Compared to other countries, the Australian economy has performed well due to timely monetary and fiscal policy propping up household incomes and supporting domestic consumption. Further to this, strong global commodity prices for key mining inputs contributed to the strength of the Australian economy through the pandemic. More ambitious climate change policy goals for Australia, as well as globally, also lead to greater economic growth outcomes for the central outlook in this update.
Access both the macroeconomic and commodity projection reports that AEMO used in their Draft Assumptions and Scenarios report below:
About the team
Our macro consulting team are world leaders in quantitative economic analysis, working with clients around the globe and across sectors to build models, forecast markets and evaluate interventions using state-of-the art techniques. Lead consultants on this project were:
Kristian Kolding
Head of Consulting, OE Australia
+61 (4) 1040 9070
Kristian Kolding
Head of Consulting, OE Australia
Sydney, Australia
Kristian leads Oxford Economics Australia’s Consulting team, working with public and private sector leaders to help them prepare for the future by applying relevant economic theory and forecasts to inform effective policy and business strategy development.
Ruchira Ray
Lead Economist, OE Australia
+61 2 8458 4227
Ruchira Ray
Lead Economist, OE Australia
Sydney, Australia
Ruchira joined BIS Oxford Economics in 2019, in macroeconomic consulting. Ruchira has worked on several buy side and sell side Due Diligence projects for assets spanning energy, transport, and real-estate. Additionally, Ruchira leads our climate change consulting team in Australasia.
Ruchira also has experience in the energy sector, working on several gas and electricity outlook reports for the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO), leading the development of industrial sector demand forecasts including regularly interviewing energy intensive industrial users of gas and electricity; producing retail gas price forecasts and conducting scenario setting consultation with industry.
Ruchira is also well versed with operating our Global Economic Model (GEM) to produce scenario forecasts.
Daniel Crook
Economist, OE Australia
+61 (2) 8458 4228
Daniel Crook
Economist, OE Australia
Sydney, Australia
Daniel is an economist who joined BIS Oxford Economics in 2020 as part of the graduate program. He has been involved in several consulting projects which included economic due diligence projects for assets transaction sales, scenario modelling, developing macroeconomic models and forecasts as well as conducting strategic cost-benefit analysis and economic impact assessments.
Daniel also has broad economic industry experience through his time working with BIS Oxford Economics’ subscription services. This included analysing and forecasting the construction and mining sectors, as well as the residential and commercial property sectors. Daniel holds a Bachelor of Business (Economics) and a Bachelor of Economics Honours from Queensland University of Technology.
Gary Wang
Economist, OE Australia
+61 (425) 799 606
Gary Wang
Economist, OE Australia
Sydney, Australia
Gary is an economist who joined the macroeconomic consulting team at the start of 2022. Gary has worked on multiple projects since joining BIS Oxford Economics, including demographic analysis for the Australian property market, and macroeconomic scenario analysis for the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO).
Prior to joining, he worked at the Reserve Bank of Australia for two years, where he worked on analysing and forecasting banknote demand in Australia and analysing the foreign exchange market.
Gary holds a Bachelor of Commerce (Finance) and Bachelor of Economics Honours (First Class) from the University of New South Wales.
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