Africa Watchlist 2025 – GDP booms, fiscal downfalls, and elections
Our Watchlist 2025 unpacks the likelihood of a South African economic boom and Kenya falling off a fiscal cliff. We also discuss political upheavals in Egypt and the Horn of Africa, and highlight a few more potential election surprises.
What you will learn:
- Our estimates suggest that fixed investment by South African businesses would have to increase by 11.4% to nearly US$40bn next year to reach the government’s ambitious 3.3% GDP growth target in 2025.
- Kenya is in no position to fill the protests-induced fiscal revenue gap with more borrowing. The country will have to secure concessional funding to avoid a fiscal cliff.
- Two key trends increase the risk of a mass protest movement emerging in Egypt: a marked deterioration in socio-economic conditions and an influx of private capital in the country’s manufacturing sector.
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