Africa Watchlist 2025 – GDP booms, fiscal downfalls, and elections

Our Watchlist 2025 unpacks the likelihood of a South African economic boom and Kenya falling off a fiscal cliff. We also discuss political upheavals in Egypt and the Horn of Africa, and highlight a few more potential election surprises.

What you will learn:

• Our estimates suggest that fixed investment by South African businesses would have to increase by 11.4% to nearly US$40bn next year to reach the government’s ambitious 3.3% GDP growth target in 2025.
• Kenya is in no position to fill the protests-induced fiscal revenue gap with more borrowing. The country will have to secure concessional funding to avoid a fiscal cliff.
• Two key trends increase the risk of a mass protest movement emerging in Egypt: a marked deterioration in socio-economic conditions and an influx of private capital in the country’s manufacturing sector.