With inflation easing, new challenges are coming to the forefront-fractured global trade, declining productivity, and a softening global economy. For policymakers and business leaders, the task is clear: build momentum amid rising uncertainty. Oxford Economics forecasts inflation to settle near 2¾% by the end of 2025, but GDP growth is expected to remain subdued at 1.8%, weighed down by global headwinds and tighter domestic conditions. Labour productivity continues to slide, falling 0.6% in reflecting deeper structural strains.
Trade tensions are also redrawing the global map. The return of tariffs is forcing businesses to weigh efficiency against resilience, creating persistent supply chain disruptions. At the same time, climate stress is testing Australia’s productivity, as net-zero ambitions intersect with mounting environmental risks..
This session will explore what the latest data tells us about Australia’s economic outlook – and how leaders can respond with strategies that prioritise resilience, sustainability, and long-term growth.
David is the Managing Director at BIS Oxford Economics and heads the office for Australia and New Zealand. In August 2013 he moved to Sydney to establish the firm and is continuing to grow the business in this region as well as leading key projects within Australia.
Before moving to Australia David worked as part of Oxford Economics’ business development team in London. Prior to joining Oxford Economics he worked for KPMG as a management consultant, specialising in financial risk management including stress testing and scenario analysis. During this time he was also seconded to the main Financial Services regulatory body, the Financial Services Authority (FSA). He completed his degree in Economics at Nottingham University and also studied the chartered institute for securities investment diploma.
Harry Murphy-Cruise
Head of Economic Research and Global Trade, OE Australia
Harry Murphy-Cruise
Head of Economic Research and Global Trade, OE Australia
Harry Murphy Cruise is the Head of Economic Research and Global Trade at Oxford Economics Australia. He leads the Australian Macroeconomic Service and global trade initiatives, including TradePrism. Harry frequently provides insights to major media outlets, including CNBC, BBC, Reuters, and the Wall Street Journal. His research primarily focuses on global trade and investment flows, with particular interest in the challenges and opportunities of economic decoupling.
Harry holds a master’s degree in international and development economics from the Australian National University and a bachelor’s degree in arts and commerce from Monash University. He is a PhD candidate at ANU, exploring the role of China’s diverse households and firms in the country’s economic transition.
Prior to joining Oxford Economics, Harry was the Head of China and Australia Economics at Moody’s Analytics. He was previously responsible for Australian state and territory analysis at Deloitte Access Economics.
Sean Langcake is Head of Macroeconomic Forecasting at Oxford Economics Australia where he is responsible for macro forecasting and analytical content. Sean is a regular contributor in the national media on Australian and global economic trends and policy issues.
Prior to joining Oxford Economics, Sean worked in a wide variety of roles at the Reserve Bank of Australia, largely focussing on forecasting and macroeconomic modelling. Sean holds a Masters Degree in Economics from the University of New South Wales, as well as a first class Honours degree in Economics and a Bachelor of International Studies from the University of Adelaide.
Ben is a lead economist at Oxford Economics Australia working on the Australian Macroeconomic Service, and TradePrism. Prior to joining Oxford Economics ben has worked as a macroeconomic consultant in the private sector in Singapore and Australia and for the Treasury in New Zealand.
Kristian leads Oxford Economics Australia’s Consulting team, working with public and private sector leaders to help them prepare for the future by applying relevant economic theory and forecasts to inform effective policy and business strategy development.
Alex has over 6 years of economic consulting experience, working with senior internal and external stakeholders to develop quantitative and qualitative approaches for a range of strategic investments and interventions across Europe, the Middle East and Asia Pacific.
Alex has undertaken a wide range of consulting projects for the public and private sectors including the viability of major new infrastructure initiatives in transport, arts and culture; strategic analysis of new city developments; the economic and social impact of innovative investment programs and recently advising a Middle Eastern government on the impact of once in a generation fiscal reform.
Discover Australia’s economic outlook with our expert forecasts and analysis. Stay informed on key trends shaping the future of the Australian economy.
Stay ahead with the latest economic forecast for New Zealand, offering detailed insights and analysis to help you understand market trends and opportunities.
Our consulting team develops bespoke solutions to help clients tackle their most important issues. The team applies economic frameworks and our proprietary models to complete more than a hundred projects every year for local and global organisations.