The economy is in the midst of a jobless expansion, or at least barreling toward one.
This isn’t just a current risk, it could become the norm in the coming years. In a jobless expansion, GDP increases but employment gains are modest, at best. This leaves the economy vulnerable to adverse shocks because the labor market acts as the primary firewall against the onset of a recession. Large, sustained increases in unemployment usually trigger a vicious cycle that often culminates in a recession. A jobless expansion will contribute to the bifurcated economy in 2026, which will be another year where the health of the economy depends on who you ask.
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