Geopolitical turmoil, AI, and the 2026 industrial outlook

2026 has started with a flurry of headlines and actions spanning from Venezuela to Greenland to Iran. While the fundamentals for global industrial growth have remained relatively constant, downside risks have notably risen.

On the fundamentals side: robust, world-leading growth in China that is coming at the expense of others, a eurozone struggling to generate momentum, a US that powers on somewhere in between, and, hanging over everything, an AI datacentre buildout that is turbocharging growth in related sectors.

On the risks side: while the switch from IEEPA to Section 122 tariffs will not lead to a massive re-ordering of the tariff landscape, the potential for additional sectoral tariffs has increased. The US war on Iran has already led to increased oil prices, which will be an additional headwind for oil- and gas-consuming sectors.

Tune in to hear about the prospects for growth in different regions and sectors and about the switch from quarterly to monthly global industry forecast updates, which will allow our forecasts to react much more quickly to the fast-moving global environment.

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Speakers

Nico Palesch

Nico is a Senior Economist within Oxford Economics’ Global Industry Service where he is responsible for monitoring and forecasting developments in the transportation & logistics sector, writing industry-related reports and research notes on sector-specific and cross-sector themes and issues, overseeing and expressing the house-view on industrial developments in our monthly publications, and working on bespoke consulting projects.

Nico holds a BSc Joint Honours Political Science and Economics from the University of Ottawa and an MSc Economics from the London School of Economics and Political Science, achieved with distinction.

Senior Economist

Jai Patel

Jai is an Economist within Oxford Economics’ Global Industry Service, where he monitors and forecasts developments in the consumer goods sector, produces sector-focused research, delivers bespoke consulting projects, and contributes to model development and enhancement initiatives.

Jai graduated with First Class Honours in BSc Economics from the London School of Economics and Political Science.

Economist