Research Briefing
We've cut our GDP growth forecasts for Japan by 0.2ppts to 0.8% in 2025 and by 0.4ppts to 0.2% in...
Monetary policy
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Research Briefing
Research Briefing US Rolls Up Welcome Mat for International Travel Trump tariffs set to raise effective rate above 1930s levels.
Research Briefing
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept its policy rate at 0.50% at Wednesday's meeting, as expected. Despite a marginally higher...
Research Briefing
We have revised our CPI forecast upwards for this year and next, due to more persistent supply side-driven food inflation,...
Research Briefing
Eurozone growth in 2025 will rely on consumers. There were positive signs in H2 last year, with consumers starting to...
Research Briefing
The Federal Reserve's policy strategy review is likely to codify what officials are already doing in practice – regular inflation...
Research Briefing
Rate cuts by the European Central Bank over the course of 2025 may not boost growth to the same degree...
Webinar
Chinese policymakers have doubled down in recent months in signalling a strong policy response to the economy’s domestic and external...
The eurozone economy remains stuck in a low gear and we have recently cut our growth forecasts as a result...
Research Briefing
The Bank of Japan raised the policy rate by 0.25ppts to 0.5% at Friday's meeting, as we expected. We maintain...
Research Briefing
We think that valid concerns about the quality of data from the UK's Labour Force Survey (LFS) make it virtually...
Research Briefing
Our probability of recession models are approaching their zero bound and are at their lowest levels in more than two...
Research Briefing
The Bank of Japan kept its policy rate at 0.25% at Thursday's meeting, as we expected. We believe that the...
Research Briefing
We now believe that the Bank of Japan will wait until January to hike the policy rate. We previously assumed...
Research Briefing
Oxford Economics' new proprietary business cycle indicator shows that real US construction spending is firmly in a decelerating growth phase.
Research Briefing
The ruling Liberal Democratic party and its partner Komeito lost their majority in Japan's lower house elections on Sunday, which...
Research Briefing
We expect growth across the Nordic economies to pick up in the near term, with quarterly growth in Sweden and...
Research Briefing
Hopes of a consumer spending recovery becoming the driving engine of eurozone growth in 2024 have not materialised. Private consumption...
Research Briefing
Treasuries have stumbled since the Federal Open Market Committee's aggressive 50bp rate cut in September, but our baseline longer-term outlook...
Research Briefing
Our sentiment data, developed with Penta, suggests that labour market conditions have loosened and pay growth has slowed abruptly through...
