Are we now stuck in a high inflation world? Temporarily high inflation has lasted for longer than anyone predicted and inflation is set to rise further from here. Might we have actually entered into a new, higher, regime for inflation? Find out more about our GDP inflation forecast.
Research Briefing
Once pent-up demand from post-lockdown fades, we think that Asian economies will settle at lower GDP growth and higher inflation than our pre-pandemic forecasts. This means nominal interest rates are also likely to stay high in 2023-2024.
Research Briefing
The failure of Silicon Valley Bank and other stresses in the global banking system have triggered a sharp repricing in...
Research Briefing
We expect the Philippines' 10-year government bond yield to trend down in 2023-2024, after rising continuously since Q3 2020.
Research Briefing
We expect global inflation to return to pre-crisis levels faster than it took to reach its peak. While any number...
Research Briefing
While recent economic developments support the notion that economies aren't heading into a major economic downturn, a global recession remains...
Research Briefing
Japan's structural labour shortage has deepened. While it may not result in a wage-inflation spiral now, labour scarcity will put...
Research Briefing
We've created a real-time indicator – the US Business Cycle Indicator (BCI) – to assess the health of economic activity....
Research Briefing
After a difficult 2022 for UK households, we expect real income to fall 1.2% in 2023 due to a range...
Research Briefing
Supply chain stress fell at the beginning of the year and further easing is likely due to weaker domestic and...
Research Briefing
France has dodged soaring price pressures better than its eurozone peers, but we think its inflation will fall more slowly.
Research Briefing
In this new quarterly Research Briefing series, we answer the top five questions we've recently received from clients.
Research Briefing
Long-term forward rates have risen markedly in the US, eurozone, and UK over the past year, and now stand well...
Research Briefing
Inflation in Asia over the past year has by and large been a story of external supply shocks, rather than...
Research Briefing
After a mixed 2022, with post-pandemic recovery driving strong growth in the first half of the year, a recession over...
Research Briefing
While nearly every metro in Canada will experience at least a minor recession between Q4 2022 and Q3 2023, on...
Research Briefing
We doubt the surprise move from the Bank of Japan to expand the tolerance range for 10-year JGB yields to...
Research Briefing
The easing in supply chain stress is an encouraging sign for the US inflation outlook, but conditions continue to drag...
Research Briefing
We expect Central and Eastern Europe will start 2023 in a synchronized economic downturn, like the rest of the EU.
Research Briefing
The Federal Reserve knows that their mission to tame inflation isn’t complete, and odds are rising that the central bank...
Research Briefing
Tightening US financial conditions over the past year will likely trim 0.2ppts from Q4 2022 GDP growth.
