Research Briefing
Our supply chain stress index moderated in September as import volumes continue to decline following front loading activity earlier this...
Global trade
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Displaying 1 to 20 of 402 results
Our view remains that US economic exceptionalism will continue in 2026. We have a high conviction that GDP growth there...
Research Briefing
The US macroeconomic implications are minor, and the resulting reduction in inflation next year is no more than just a...
Research Briefing
The end of the government shutdown did not alter the broader economic trajectory, but it did create a sharp swing...
Research Briefing
Farm bankruptcies are rising, and the underlying pressures go well beyond this year's turbulence in US-China relations, pointing to structural...
Research Briefing
Our Global Rebalance scenario explores a gradual movement from a unipolar, dollar-based system to one with two centres of economic...
The Scenarios and Modelling team highlight the unique features of our Global Economic Model that make it perfectly suited to...
Research Briefing
Uncertainty around global growth has widened the range of possible outcomes for oil consumption. While demand growth currently lags behind...
In our Q4 Megatrends Scenarios update, we introduce Global Rebalance, a scenario where political interference weakens the Federal Reserve’s independence...
Research Briefing
A recent agreement to lower tariffs on Chinese imports by 10 percentage points has nudged the US effective tariff rate...
Research Briefing
Global tradeflows remain under pressure despite easing tariff tensions. Recent US–China agreements reduce select import taxes and support China’s 2026...
The US has taken its most aggressive step yet against Russia’s oil sector, sanctioning the financial arms of Rosneft and...
China's exports have adapted, rather than retreated, under higher US tariffs. It will be difficult for businesses and consumers to...
Using sectoral production data from Oxford’s Global Industry Service, we have been able to quantify which countries and sectors have...
Research Briefing
Our analysis suggests that rising digital technology investment in the United States could significantly exceed consensus growth expectations for 2026.
The global economy has weathered the initial tariff storm better than many feared. But the full impact is yet to...
Research Briefing
Asia chip export index (CEI) showed a remarkable rise of 27.3% in value and 26.2% in volume year-on-year.
The removal of most of Canada's retalliatory tariffs and a continuing low US effective tariff rate improves growth prospects. Yet,...
Blog
Economic Outlook Conference 2025 brought together business leaders and policymakers in Sydney & Melbourne where Oxford Economics Australia shared key...
Research Briefing
The US has seen short-term gains from higher tariffs, with markets steady and growth holding up. But investment weakness, rising...
