Our baseline expectation that most US tariffs on Canada and Mexico will be removed by mid-2026 with the USMCA’s renegotiation...
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Research Briefing
The US attack on Venezuela over the weekend dramatically increases uncertainty about the future of its political regime, but the...
The past 12 months have been defined by unexpected resilience amid intense trade turmoil. But what will the second year...
Momentum in the economy is building as inflation rears its head again – leaving the RBA in a sticky predicament....
Research Briefing
Global trade will be caught in a tug-of-war between tariffs and AI, capping growth at 1.2% in 2026.
Research Briefing
We anticipate another year of broadly steady and unexceptional global GDP growth, but with some more interesting stories running below...
Research Briefing
Black and Hispanic households have experienced more inflation than other groups since the reopening of the economy from the pandemic...
Asia will enter 2026 on an unexpectedly firm footing. Despite facing higher tariffs than any other region, intra-Asian supply chains...
Global trade is set for a stronger-than-expected rebound, supported by lower US tariffs, continued AI-driven investment, and China’s renewed export...
Research Briefing
Our supply chain stress index moderated in September as import volumes continue to decline following front loading activity earlier this...
Our view remains that US economic exceptionalism will continue in 2026. We have a high conviction that GDP growth there...
Research Briefing
The US macroeconomic implications are minor, and the resulting reduction in inflation next year is no more than just a...
Research Briefing
The end of the government shutdown did not alter the broader economic trajectory, but it did create a sharp swing...
Research Briefing
Farm bankruptcies are rising, and the underlying pressures go well beyond this year's turbulence in US-China relations, pointing to structural...
Research Briefing
Our Global Rebalance scenario explores a gradual movement from a unipolar, dollar-based system to one with two centres of economic...
The Scenarios and Modelling team highlight the unique features of our Global Economic Model that make it perfectly suited to...
Research Briefing
Uncertainty around global growth has widened the range of possible outcomes for oil consumption. While demand growth currently lags behind...
In our Q4 Megatrends Scenarios update, we introduce Global Rebalance, a scenario where political interference weakens the Federal Reserve’s independence...
Research Briefing
A recent agreement to lower tariffs on Chinese imports by 10 percentage points has nudged the US effective tariff rate...
Research Briefing
Global tradeflows remain under pressure despite easing tariff tensions. Recent US–China agreements reduce select import taxes and support China’s 2026...
