We’ve lowered our world GDP growth forecast by 0.4ppts since the start of March to 2.4% because we expect a...
Fiscal policy
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Research Briefing
We expect the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies to enter recession in the first half of this year as the...
This comprehensive webinar will explore Germany’s economic outlook after one year under the new coalition. We’ll assess the progress of...
Research Briefing
The UK's Plan 2 graduate loan is pushing younger workers into high repayment rates at a time when disposable income...
Research Briefing
In response to the US-Iran war, we've downgraded our forecast for GCC real GDP growth by 1.8ppts to 2.6% for...
Still sluggish domestic demand, the recently-concluded ‘Two Sessions’, and an ongoing Middle Eastern conflict all point to the need for...
Consulting Report
The EU’s Tobacco Excise Directive set a harmonised framework for cigarette taxation, but our study shows that differences in the...
Research Briefing
The White House has pivoted to a new tariff authority to impose a 10% global duty, with the possibility of...
Research Briefing
The ruling Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) landslide election victory on Sunday doesn't change our expectation of a primary fiscal deficit...
Recent developments such as rising US isolationism and the AI investment boom could materially change long-term growth prospects. In this...
Research Briefing
In our upcoming February forecast update, we'll stick to our expectation of a primary fiscal deficit of 2%-3% of GDP...
Research Briefing
Despite the new government's 2026 budget being slightly more timid than anticipated, we don't plan major changes to our outlook....
As confidence of the US’ role as the anchor of the international order weakens, our long-term Global Rebalance scenario explores...
Consulting ReportWhitepaper
Asia remains one of the world’s most dynamic growth regions—but the forces shaping business outcomes are changing.
Research Briefing
Japanese government bond yields have surged over the past few weeks. Here, we answer the most frequently asked questions about...
Research Briefing
We think the Czech 10-year bond yield is on track to breach 5% in the coming months, as the markets continue to price in the...
Research Briefing
Midterm voters seem to form their opinion around the economy in the summer and fall. How the economy, and especially...
Research Briefing
Gilt yields are expected to ease over the coming years, but higher term premia, fiscal pressures, and shifting investor demand...
Research Briefing
We've changed our fiscal outlook for Japan in our December forecast round. We now expect the new government to set...
Research Briefing
We anticipate another year of broadly steady and unexceptional global GDP growth, but with some more interesting stories running below...