Research Briefing | May 4, 2022

War in Ukraine presents new headwinds for the Nordics

While the economic fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will likely be limited for the Nordic region, we have nonetheless trimmed our 2022 growth forecasts. Inflation will peak higher, dragging on consumption and prompting faster monetary policy tightening in Sweden. Nordic energy dependence on fossil fuels from Russia is among the lowest in Europe, and apart from Finland, trade with and industry inputs from Russia and Ukraine are negligible.

What you will learn:

  • Spikes in energy prices, renewed supply-chain disruption, and higher food prices will drive inflation higher this year.
  • Real incomes will take a big hit, weighing on consumption.
  • The Nordic economies have a relatively low dependence on fossil fuels from Russia compared to the rest of Europe, with a marked shift away from Russian oil underway.

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