Research Briefing
Net immigration trends and labor market implications
US Labor Market
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Research Briefing
Higher unemployment among recent US graduates is driven by structural shifts in tech hiring and AI displacement. Labor force participation...
Research Briefing
We will revise the forecast for federal employment significantly lower this year, and in subsequent years, because of the announced...
Research Briefing
The risks to our participation rate forecast are numerous and largely weighted to the downside, implying unemployment could fall further.
Research Briefing
A surge in temporary layoffs drove another rise in the unemployment rate in July, stoking recession concerns and fears that...
Research Briefing
The economy underwhelmed in the first half of the year while it transitioned to a more sustainable pace of growth,...
Research Briefing
Our business cycle indicator confirms the economy has improved after getting off to a slow start in Q1. We expect...
Research Briefing
The easing in supply chain stress is an encouraging sign for the US inflation outlook, but conditions continue to drag...
Research Briefing
There is no perfect measure of nominal wages – each has its own blemishes. So, we've created a wage tracker...
