Despite the upgrade to our global economic outlook since December 2023, the Q1 update of our IFRS 9 and CECL...
United States
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Research Briefing
We expect the March employment report to show moderating job growth, adding to the Federal Reserve's confidence that the labor...
Research Briefing
We forecast stable GDP growth across most US metros in 2024, followed by decelerating growth over the subsequent four years....
Research Briefing
The collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Maryland is another reminder of the US vulnerability to supply-chain shocks.
Research Briefing
A scenario where neither the Federal Reserve nor the European Central Bank cut rates in 2024 would reduce eurozone GDP...
Research Briefing
We expect that offices will be the most exposed US property sector to the impact of generative AI by 2032,...
Research Briefing
Our business cycle indicator implies that the economy is losing momentum, but there are some caveats. Some of the data...
Research Briefing
US business investment continues to advance, despite fears it would tumble in 2023 ahead of a widely anticipated recession.
Research Briefing
In our March baseline we revised down substantially our long-term forecast for housing starts to better align it with our...
Consulting Report
Starting in late May 2023, Oxford Economics, in collaboration with TikTok, initiated a study to better measure the economic value...
Research Briefing
The pandemic was associated in many minds with a flight of people away from city centers, raising doubts over the...
Research Briefing
Five manufacturing sectors have contributed significant job growth in many metros in recent years, at a time when employment in...
Research Briefing
Our view remains that the most severe risks in commercial real estate are concentrated in the office sector, as it...
Research Briefing
Immigration has become the key driver of population growth, and that trend will only accelerate. Based on our forecast, immigration...
We remain modestly risk-on as our above-consensus view on US growth this year still favours risk assets over bonds.
Research Briefing
The latest results point to a broad-based decline in US profit margins in Q4, reversing a recovery in Q3. We...
Research Briefing
Florida's economic prospects remain strong. Its wider attractions for people and business have encouraged in-migration but also put pressure on...
Research Briefing
Our expectation for the US industrial sector to outperform other major commercial real estate sectors is predicated on the persistence...
Research Briefing
We think that global real estate investment trust (REIT) prices will continue to grow in H1 on the expectation that...
Research Briefing
Under our latest climate scenario analysis, net zero policies in the US will have highly unequal impacts across states and...