Research Briefing
Following a year of subdued global growth in 2023, we think a further softening of economic conditions is likely next...
Policy Tightening
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Research Briefing
We think risk assets will underperform in 2024. We map out the implications of our key 2024 global macro themes...
Research Briefing
Global economic prospects remain relatively subdued. The peak impact of past policy tightening has yet to be fully felt in...
Research Briefing
We have said activity data would slow sequentially from Q1. Four months into the reopening, China's economic recovery can best...
Research Briefing
Supply chain stress eased in April, which will put downward pressure on goods prices and allow the Fed to pause...
Research Briefing
The Czech National Bank (CNB) kept the policy rate unchanged at 7% for the fourth consecutive meeting today, in line...
Research Briefing
Tightening US financial conditions over the past year will likely trim 0.2ppts from Q4 2022 GDP growth.
Research Briefing
Following a hard winter, we expect the Nordic economies to rebound from mid-2023 as falling inflation turns real incomes positive,...
Research Briefing
The outlook for Latin America changed dramatically after Russia's invasion of Ukraine last February.
Research Briefing
We expect the UK economy to be in recession for most of 2023, with activity dragged down by falling real...
Research Briefing
The global cycle is now rolling over and even if the recession is likely to be mild, the subsequent recovery...
Research Briefing
Reopening pressures have increased, as recent protests test policymakers' resolve to stick to the current zero-Covid approach.
Research Briefing
Bank Indonesia raised its policy rate by 50 bps at its last meeting on November 17, making for a total...
Research Briefing
While our outlook for emerging markets (EMs) is more upbeat than for advanced economies (AEs), we have cut our 2023...
Research Briefing
Policy divergence will continue to be a key theme in global FI markets in 2023. Whereas we pencil in a...
Research Briefing
The CNB again left the policy rate unchanged at 7% at the November meeting, staying put for the third consecutive...
Research Briefing
To no one's surprise, the FOMC raised interest rates by 75bps for a fourth consecutive meeting, lifting the target range...
Research Briefing
2023 is likely to be a difficult year for most Asian economies with growth slowdowns, stubborn inflation, and sticky policy...
Research Briefing
Anything but a 75bps hike of the ECB's key policy rates after next week's council meeting would be a big...
Research Briefing
Soaring debt costs across advanced economies threaten to push commercial real estate markets into distress. DM REITs are likely to...
