Research Briefing
In our latest forecast, we removed the mild recession from our baseline and now anticipate a prolonged period of below-trend...
Mild Recession
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Research Briefing
All the components of our supply chain stress tracker were steady or signaled an improvement in conditions in July. The...
Research Briefing
The easing in supply chain stress is an encouraging sign for the US inflation outlook, but conditions continue to drag...
Research Briefing
Tightening US financial conditions over the past year will likely trim 0.2ppts from Q4 2022 GDP growth.
Research Briefing
In a tough global environment, we are below consensus on advanced economy growth and anticipate most will fall into recession...
Research Briefing
There is no perfect measure of nominal wages – each has its own blemishes. So, we've created a wage tracker...
Research Briefing
The outlook for Latin America changed dramatically after Russia's invasion of Ukraine last February.
Research Briefing
The global cycle is now rolling over and even if the recession is likely to be mild, the subsequent recovery...
Research Briefing
We expect real estate values to correct sharply in 2023, but pressure should gradually alleviate as policy rates peak.
Research Briefing
We anticipate most advanced economies will fall into recession in 2023 and global growth will be weaker than the consensus...
Our Housing Affordability Indices showed affordability worsened in the US and Canada in Q2 due to sharply higher mortgage rates....
