Research Briefing
The Iran conflict's economic fallout shouldn't curb Eurozone consumer spending much, but the impact could linger.
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Research Briefing
We expect the Eurozone economy to gain momentum in 2026, but without a strong policy boost, its economic growth will...
Research Briefing
We expect Nordic GDP growth to outperform the Eurozone in 2026, driven by expansionary fiscal policy and higher consumer spending....
Research Briefing
We don't plan material changes to our Eurozone baseline forecast of 1.1% GDP growth this year and 0.8% in 2026...
Research Briefing
A 30% tariff would send the Eurozone economy to the edge of recession, with growth stagnating over the coming quarters.
Research Briefing
NATO's commitment to spend 5% of GDP annually on defence by 2035 is broadly in line with the change to...
Research Briefing
Our revamped modelling shows that a recession is not imminent for the Eurozone and the big four despite the extreme...
Research Briefing
The economic costs of the 50% tariffs to the Eurozone could amount to 0.3%–1.0% of the Eurozone’s GDP by the...
Research Briefing
The Eurozone's recession risks remain elevated—possibly higher than those in the US—as its economic expansion is more fragile.
Research Briefing
The scale of the US tariffs announced on April 2 suggests the economic impact on the Eurozone will be swift....
Research Briefing
Our proprietary Eurozone Supply Stress Indicator shows that supply stress is still low, even after the US tariff announcement on...
Research Briefing
Our baseline forecast now assumes that European defence spending will rise to 3% of GDP by the end of the...
Research Briefing
Eurozone growth in 2025 will rely on consumers. There were positive signs in H2 last year, with consumers starting to...
Research Briefing
Rate cuts by the European Central Bank over the course of 2025 may not boost growth to the same degree...
Research Briefing
We have incorporated a 10% blanket tariff by the US and immediate retaliation by the EU in our forecast for...
Research Briefing
We expect the Spanish and Portuguese economies will continue to be clear outperformers within a struggling eurozone this year. Spain...
Research Briefing
After a year of weak activity, the eurozone economy should gain some momentum.
Research Briefing
European industry is still in the midst of an almost two-year recession, but we believe that the end is increasingly...
Europe’s industrial recession continues to take its toll: the EU's industrial output expected to shrink by 0.7% in 2024, a...
Research Briefing
Our baseline forecast assumes generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) will boost eurozone GDP level by 1.4% over the next 15 years,...
