Research Briefing
Central banks and many other forecasters may be underestimating the risk of persistently high inflation. While our view is that...
Economic forecasting
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Displaying 1 to 20 of 148 results
Research Briefing
Soaring debt costs across advanced economies threaten to push commercial real estate markets into distress. DM REITs are likely to...
Research Briefing
Egyptian authorities met with IMF staff on the sidelines of the IMF and the World Bank annual meetings held in...
Research Briefing
With Liz Truss's agenda of tax cuts and supply-side reforms dead before it had even begun, her resignation as UK...
Research Briefing
We do not believe the moderate recession forecast this winter and the deepening housing correction completely undermines the medium-term case...
Research Briefing
The new UK Chancellor's decision to reverse almost all September's mini-Budget tax cuts plus action to limit the cost of...
Research Briefing
After five consecutive years of production cuts, Japan's key auto industry looks poised for recovery. Unfilled orders are still elevated,...
Research Briefing
Supply chain strains eased in September after increasing slightly in August. Transportation pressures subsided the most of all our tracker's...
Research Briefing
In our view, the IMF's recent downgrade of its global GDP growth forecast looks too optimistic. The IMF estimates that...
Research Briefing
The cost of debt for real estate has risen steeply in recent months, as credit conditions tighten, loan margins widen,...
Research Briefing
African purchasing managers' index (PMI) readings for Q3 2022 reflect economic weakness on the continent and we expect GDP data...
Research Briefing
We expect eurozone industrial production to contract by a cumulative 3% over the next few quarters due to the severe...
Research Briefing
We estimate the recent surge in swap rates – a key driver of mortgage rates – means that UK house...
Research Briefing
Further moderate downgrades to the near-term outlook for advanced economies (AEs) have pushed our global GDP forecast perilously close to...
BoE governor Andrew Bailey's insistence that emergency support will end on Friday is an unsustainable position that we expect to...
As spiralling energy prices threaten to cause huge pain for consumers and businesses, governments across Europe are rolling out initiatives...
Research Briefing
The question of debt restructuring is becoming a more pressing one: in recent weeks, a number of African sovereigns have...
Research Briefing
The ongoing surge in mortgage rates in advanced economies threatens to push some housing markets into steep downturns. Housing prices...
Research Briefing
As far as markets are concerned, the Fed's expected path of short term rates, peaking at 4.4% early next year,...
Research Briefing
The government's levelling up ambition has probably been made more, not less, difficult by the new "Plan for Growth". Policies...
