Research Briefing
President Trump launched the first salvo in what will like turn into another global trade war. A 10% additional tariff...
Baseline Forecast
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Research Briefing
We still see the presidential election as a coin flip, but our updated scenarios suggest that upside risks to our...
Research Briefing
We believe that recent jitters about US growth prospects are overdone. While US GDP growth will slow a bit, we...
Research Briefing
If President Biden did not drop out, the outcome of the election appeared to be clear, but things have changed...
Research Briefing
Using our Global Industry Model, we have modelled the sectoral impacts of two scenarios in which former President Donald Trump returns to the...
Research Briefing
The unemployment rate is on the rise and has caught the attention of the Federal Reserve and financial markets. We...
Blog|3 July 2024 Risks in our Q2 IFRS 9 and CECL scenarios more evenly spread reflecting monetary policy and geopolitical...
Research Briefing
A second Trump presidency could have a moderate impact on European growth based on our simulation of his proposed policies....
Research Briefing
Our baseline forecast is for world food commodity prices to register an annual decline this year, in aggregate, reducing pressure...
Research Briefing
Global growth prospects for the year ahead remain weak. We continue to see a prolonged period of steady and unspectacular...
Research Briefing
While the economy has expanded throughout 2023, uncertainty remains high and we are not ready to remove a recession from...
Research Briefing
Global economic prospects remain relatively subdued. The peak impact of past policy tightening has yet to be fully felt in...
Research Briefing
The data this week have done little to change the picture of an economy that remains resilient and a labor...
Research Briefing
We expect eurozone house prices will continue to slide through 2023 following back-to-back declines in Q1 2023 and Q4 2022....
Research Briefing
Oxford Economics has introduced its new Tech Spend Monitor that provides forecasts of US spending on enterprise technology by industry.
Research Briefing
The failure of Silicon Valley Bank and other stresses in the global banking system have triggered a sharp repricing in...
Research Briefing
US authorities appear to have contained the fallout from the collapse of two regional banks – Silicon Valley Bank (SVB)...
Research Briefing
We forecast the Mexican peso will appreciate by 4.9% in 2023 to an average of 19.2/US$, up from 20.2/US$ last...
Research Briefing
While recent economic developments support the notion that economies aren't heading into a major economic downturn, a global recession remains...
Research Briefing
We have cut our US industrial outlook to reflect rising interest rates and economic uncertainty.
