Research Briefing | Sep 30, 2022

Recessionary headwinds dampen growth for Phoenix in 2023

Like its Rocky Mountain-area peers, Phoenix has seen tremendous growth since the start of the pandemic. Its net job growth of 3.6% from Q1 2020 to Q3 2022 ranks in the top 20 of 50 metros. Industries associated with population growth – retail, construction, even restaurants – have added the most jobs in the metro. We forecast job growth of 1.2% in 2023 along with average annual growth of 1.7% for 2022-2026. The same industries are expected to add the most jobs.

What you will learn:

  • Phoenix has seen GDP growth of 7.6% from Q1 2020 to Q3 2022. This, again, ranks in the top 20 of 50 metros. GDP growth has been led by manufacturing and finance and insurance. With its balanced growth, Phoenix is expected to avoid a recession in 2023, unlike half of the top 50 metros.
  • With two new semiconductor facilities (Intel and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) underway, Phoenix is gaining recognition for its burgeoning tech sector, which includes software, data processing, computer systems design and computer manufacturing.
  • Phoenix also has a large finance and insurance sector with Wells Fargo, JP Morgan, Bank of America and others in the metro. The finance sector has added 10,000 jobs (+6.4%) since Q1 2020 and GDP growth of 16% since Q1 2020.
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