Istanbul GDP growth to slow this year amid external headwinds

After rising strongly last year, we forecast that GDP in Istanbul will grow at a slower pace of 2.5% in 2022. Part of this reflects an exhaustion of easy gains from re-opening the economy after lockdown. But higher energy prices and further uncertainty from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are also set to weigh on near term growth prospects. Over the medium term (2022-26) we expect Istanbul’s GDP growth to average 2.7% per year, placing the Turkish capital in the middle tier of our European city rankings.

What you will learn:

• Istanbul outperforms Turkey across most structural indicators but trails the European city average.
• Despite the strong historical economic performance, there were underlying fragilities to this growth.
• Istanbul does have a favourable demographic outlook, with the city’s young population supporting strong labour force growth.