Industry Forecast Highlights: Past rate hikes dampen prospects for industrial production until 2025

We expect global industrial production to grow by 2.6% this year, up from 1.8% in 2023. Our view remains that value-added industrial production bottomed out last year and is on course for a gradual recovery.

What you will learn:

• In Europe, industrial production is not expected to pick up markedly until late next year.
• In the US, capital goods sectors such as mechanical and electrical engineering continue to grapple with weak demand due to higher interest rates. Solid growth in the automotive and high-tech sectors provides some offset.
• China’s weak domestic consumption will cool momentum during H2, but overall industrial growth in 2024 will be solid.
• Changes to our views on productivity have prompted adjustments to our long-term industrial forecasts. In the US, the impact of generative AI is expected to provide a significant boost to productivity growth.