Research Briefing | Sep 4, 2024

Industry Forecast Highlights: Past rate hikes dampen prospects for industrial production until 2025

We expect global industrial production to grow by 2.6% this year, up from 1.8% in 2023. Our view remains that value-added industrial production bottomed out last year and is on course for a gradual recovery.

What you will learn:

  • In Europe, industrial production is not expected to pick up markedly until late next year.
  • In the US, capital goods sectors such as mechanical and electrical engineering continue to grapple with weak demand due to higher interest rates. Solid growth in the automotive and high-tech sectors provides some offset.
  • China’s weak domestic consumption will cool momentum during H2, but overall industrial growth in 2024 will be solid.
  • Changes to our views on productivity have prompted adjustments to our long-term industrial forecasts. In the US, the impact of generative AI is expected to provide a significant boost to productivity growth.
Back to Resource Hub

Related Resources

Post

Rising demand fuels surge in US data centre construction

The demand for data centres in the United States is rapidly increasing, driven primarily by the continued rise of cloud computing and the emergence of artificial intelligence (AI).

Find Out More

Post

Claims of deindustrialisation in Europe are overblown

Our forecasts do not show any significant deindustrialisation over the next decades in Europe. However, Europe indeed faces substantial challenges that will impact low-skilled, upstream, energy-intensive and easily tradable sectors.

Find Out More

Post

Quantifying the hit to industry from a second Trump presidency

Using our Global Industry Model, we have modelled the sectoral impacts of two scenarios in which former President Donald Trump returns to the White House and Republicans gain full control of congress.

Find Out More