Denmark: Pharma faces up to a more uncertain protectionist era
After several years of rapid growth, we think Denmark’s pharmaceutical sector has reached an inflection point and production will settle at a new permanent high. But US President Donald Trump’s threat to impose high tariffs on Danish goods over the status of Greenland means the pharma sector is entering a more uncertain and protectionist era.
What you will learn:
- Growth has slowed due to Novo Nordisk’s fading first-mover advantage as competitors fight for share of the weight-loss drugs market and supply constraints start to bite. Resolving supply issues should mean production increase in 2026, but Novo Nordisk’s market share will likely fall.
- President Trump’s threats over Greenland are likely part of a broader negotiation strategy to secure a more favourable trading relationship with the European Union. But it would be premature to rule out tariffs on Danish pharmaceutical goods given the importance of the US market to Novo Nordisk.
- Tariffs on semaglutide – the active ingredient in Novo Nordisk’s pioneering weight loss and diabetes drugs – would deliver a short-term, sizeable blow to the sector. But Novo Nordisk continues to secure patents, and with global obesity and diabetes metrics suggesting long-term high demand, government approval in other key markets will help cushion the tariff knock.

Tags:
Related Services

Post
Nordics Key Themes 2025: Policy and cyclical tailwinds will boost growth
We expect growth will pick up in 2025 in Sweden, Norway and Finland, with Denmark as the exception, where we believe growth will slow but remain above potential.
Find Out More
Post
Europe: Copenhagen expected to lead the way in the Nordics
We are cautiously optimistic about the medium-term outlook for the Nordic cities, and we expect them to continue to outperform their European city peers, as they have typically done in the past.
Find Out More
Post
Nordics: Growth to pick up this year, but it will diverge
The Nordic economies will have a better 2024 than last year, but growth rates will diverge across the region. The main growth drivers will be improving domestic demand, higher confidence, and easing financial conditions amid lower inflation and policy easing. A pharma boom will make Denmark outperform, while a weak finish to 2023 will weigh on growth in Finland and Sweden.
Find Out More
Post
Nordics: Growing tailwinds to support a cyclical recovery
We expect growth across the Nordic economies to pick up in the near term, with quarterly growth in Sweden and Norway among the highest across advanced economies by late next year, driven by cyclical tailwinds and policy easing
Find Out More