Denmark: Pharma faces up to a more uncertain protectionist era

After several years of rapid growth, we think Denmark’s pharmaceutical sector has reached an inflection point and production will settle at a new permanent high. But US President Donald Trump’s threat to impose high tariffs on Danish goods over the status of Greenland means the pharma sector is entering a more uncertain and protectionist era.

What you will learn:

• Growth has slowed due to Novo Nordisk’s fading first-mover advantage as competitors fight for share of the weight-loss drugs market and supply constraints start to bite. Resolving supply issues should mean production increase in 2026, but Novo Nordisk’s market share will likely fall.
• President Trump’s threats over Greenland are likely part of a broader negotiation strategy to secure a more favourable trading relationship with the European Union. But it would be premature to rule out tariffs on Danish pharmaceutical goods given the importance of the US market to Novo Nordisk.
• Tariffs on semaglutide – the active ingredient in Novo Nordisk’s pioneering weight loss and diabetes drugs – would deliver a short-term, sizeable blow to the sector. But Novo Nordisk continues to secure patents, and with global obesity and diabetes metrics suggesting long-term high demand, government approval in other key markets will help cushion the tariff knock.